Not only clueless, but obedient enough to want to think in a certain way. Only suckers don’t have that instinct. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is one of the most pragmatic minds out there and I was honored to interview him. The argument by psychologists to make IQ useful is of the sort: “IQ” is most predictive of performance in military training, with correlation~.5, (which is circular since hiring isn’t random and training is another test). What should x be? He is a professor at the University of New York and author of bestsellers: “The Black Swan. We discuss common errors and fallacies when using naive “evidence based” empiricism and point forecasts for fat-tailed variables, as well as the insufficiency of using naive first-order scientific methods for tail risk management. Conversation between Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Executive President of IE Exponential Learning at IE University, Teresa Martín-Retortillo at enlightED Virtual Edition 2020. Racists/eugenists, people bent on showing that, Psychometrics peddlers looking for suckers (military, large corporations) buying the “this is the best measure in psychology” argument when it is not even technically a measure — it explains at best between 2 and 13% of the performance in. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has 39 books on Goodreads with 618196 ratings. by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Ingrid Pross-Gill | 27 Aug 2018. Skeptical empiricist Nassim Taleb, author of "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable", has bracing things to say about the future. The “g” because of its mathematical flaws fails to produce a general solution to this. “IQ” is good for @davidgraeber’s “BS jobs”. See Antifragile and how any measure of “intelligence” w/o convexity is sterile edge.org/conversation/n…). Not seeing patterns except when they are significant is a virtue in real life. It will show a finite number in sample but doesn’t exist statistically — and the metrics will overestimare the predictability. Further it is leading to racist imbeciles who think that if a country has an IQ of 82 (assuming it is true not the result of lack of such training), it means politically that all the people there have an IQ of 82, hence let’s ban them from immigrating. Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Psychologists do not realize that the effect of IQ (if any, ignoring circularity) is smaller than the difference between IQ tests for the same individual (correlation is 80% between test and retest, meaning you being you explains less than 64% of your test results. Discussion with Dhruv Madeka of the paper: Election Pricing: a Martingale Approach and other related works. How Does Type 2 Diabetes Affect One’s Immune System? Chapters in Progress from The Incerto Collection (The Black…, Chapters in Progress from The Incerto Collection (The Black Swan, Antifragile, etc. Real Life: In academia there is no difference between academia and the real world; in the real world there is. Some people can only focus on problems that are real, not fictional textbook ones (see the note below where I explain that I can only concentrate with real not fictional problems). More From Medium. I personally have never seen anyone learn to speak a language properly by the first route. ), up to 2 standard deviations as measured across people, higher than the sampling error in the population itself! There are two routes; the first is to memorize imperfect verbs, grammatical rules, future vs. past tenses, recite boring context-free sentences, and pass an exam. The Impact of Highly Improbable”, and “Antifragile. On October 10, 2020 By Arn In Academic, Videos, Writing. Read writing from Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Medium. Add to basket. The mere presence of such a filter increases the visible mean and lower the visible variance. Only 1 left in stock - order soon. CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY A flaw in the attempts to identify “intelligence” genes. These are severe, severe mathematical flaws (a billion papers in psychometrics wouldn’t count if you have such a flaw). Write on Medium, The sights, safety, and science of the great american eclipse. ), Background : “IQ” is a stale test meant to measure mental capacity but in fact mostly measures extreme unintelligence (learning difficulties), as well as, to a lesser extent (with a lot of noise), a form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects — how good someone is at taking some type of exams designed by unsophisticated nerds. Unlike measurements of height or wealth, which carry a tiny relative error, many people get yuugely different results for the same IQ test (I mean the same person! While countries have improved their capacity since the early days of the Covid-19 outbreak, Taleb said there has been a failure to develop quick, efficient testing at a scale that can cut off chains of transmission early. US$36.49 US$40.03. However, if you take a Popperian-Hayekian view on intelligence, you would realize that to measure future needs it you would need to know the mental skills needed in a future ecology, which requires predictability of said future ecology. Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Different populations have different variances, even different skewness and these comparisons require richer models. A goat will be ideal then. ), Medium is an open platform where 170 million readers come to find insightful and dynamic thinking. It’s easy and free to post your thinking on any topic. Also 1) Used the same data as researchers to find that R² for IQ-wealth and IQ-income is effectively 0 in spite of the circularity. Mar 12, 2017. Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumors or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. 2) Real life never never offers crisp questions with crisp answers (most questions don’t have answers; perhaps the worst problem with IQ is that it seem to selects for people who don’t like to say “there is no answer, don’t waste time, find something else”.) Example: you are designing a car for “performance”. Save US$3.54. If you looked at Northern Europe from Ancient Babylon/Ancient Med/Egypt, you would have written the inhabitants off as losers who are devoid of potential... Then look at what happened after 1600. Some psychologist wrote back to me: “IQ selects for pattern recognition, essential for functioning in modern society”. 11 Oct 2018. The second approach consists in going to a bar, struggling a little bit and, out of the need to blend-in and integrate with a fun group of people, then suddenly find yourself able to communicate. Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The Masks Masquerade. In a “Squawk Box” interview, Taleb specifically pointed to the importance of coronavirus testing. Discussion with Dhruv Madeka of the paper: Election Pricing: a Martingale Approach and other related works. (2020). Every day, Nassim Nicholas Taleb and thousands of other voices read, write, and share important stories on Medium. In his academic work, he focuses on issues connected with probability, randomness and uncertainty. To do well you must survive; survival requires some mental biases directing to some errors. Add to basket. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's 91 research works with 1,373 citations and 20,326 reads, including: Unmasking the mask studies: why the effectiveness of … Explore, If you have a story to tell, knowledge to share, or a perspective to offer — welcome home. Be careful when you discuss populations. It is the interpretation of these correlations that is full of BS. Nassim Nicholas Taleb ist ein Essayist und Forscher in den Bereichen Statistik, Zufall und Epistemologie und ehemaliger Finanzmathematiker. If you think you will change the behavior of religious people by modifying the theologies, you are committing the standard Weberian fallacy. ― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life. But what if you need to cross the Corsican garigue? Link to the Paper: Election Predictions as Martingales: An Arbitrage Approach, Incerto (Deluxe Edition): Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, Life Expectancy can be so grossly misunderstood by “experts”, Some (Mis)Understanding of Life Expectancy, With Some Good News, Paper: Informational Rescaling of PCA Maps with Application to Genetics, [YouTube] Nassim and Yaneer Bar-Yam discuss the Danish Study on Face Masks, [Medium] Foreword for Cut the Knot: Probability Riddles by Alexander Bogomolny, Nassim on CNBC Squawk Box: Global coronavirus response a case study of government incompetence and denial, [Medium] Religion, Violence, Tolerance & Progress: Nothing to do with Theology, medium.com/incerto/religion-violence-tolerance-progress-nothing-to-do-with-theology, [YouTube] enlightED 2020: Conversation between Nassim Taleb and Teresa Martín-Retortillo, Paper: On single point forecasts for fat-tailed variables, [YouTube] Nassim’s interview with George Buhnici, How to Price an Election: A Martingale Approach, Election Predictions as Martingales: An Arbitrage Approach, Nassim Taleb’s Book Reviews/Recommendations, Hierarchy of distributions in term of fat-tailedness. Imagine a chronometer that varies by 1 hour per measurement! And note that the variance within populations is not used to draw conclusions (you average over functions, don’t use the funciton over averages) — a problem acute for tail contributions. What goes in people’s head as a reaction to an image on a screen doesn’t exist (except via negativa). Chapters in Progress from The Incerto Collection (The Black Swan, Antifragile, etc.) Hack job by one Jonatan Pallesen, full of mistakes about this piece (and the “empiricism”), promoted by mountebanks such as Murray. We have gotten similar results since the famous Terman longitudinal study, even with massaged data for later studies. Another problem: when they say “black people are x standard deviations away”, they don’t know what they are talking about. 14 likes. Link to Paper – sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/…, Nassim Taleb’s Interview with George Buhnici of Cavaleria Com YouTube channel. Source: Paul Bogossian]. No. 3) It takes a certain type of person to waste intelligent concentration on classroom/academic problems. Yves here. by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. | Jan 1, 2018. Some argue that IQ measures intellectual capacity — real world results come from, in addition, “wisdom” or patience, or “conscientiousness”, or decision-making or something of the sort. Follow. Recall from Antifragile that if wealth were fat tailed, you’d need to focus on the tail minority (for which IQ has unpredictable payoff), never the average. And one has to be a lunatic (or a psychologist) to believe that a standardized test will reveal independent thinking. Il est actuellement professeur d'ingénierie du risque à l'Institut polytechnique de l'université de New York1,2,3. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a Lebanese–American author and scholar, whose research is primarily associated with problems of uncertainty, probability, and randomness. If you want to detect how someone fares at a task, say loan sharking, tennis playing, or random matrix theory, make him/her do that task; we don’t need theoretical exams for a real world function by probability-challenged psychologists. It is via negativa not via positiva. It also has the least economic cost, he said. Continue reading on Medium: medium.com/incerto/religion-violence-tolerance-progress-nothing-to-do-with-theology. From engaging participants (who throw buzzwords at you), I realized that the concept has huge variance, enough to be uninformative. Probability and statistics confuse fools. How do you learn a language? To get the point, consider that if someone has mental needs, there will be 100% correlation between performance and IQ tests. 4) IQ doesn’t detect convexity of mistakes (by an argument similar to bias-variance you need to make a lot of small inconsequential mistake in order to avoid a large consequential one. Articles Cited by Co-authors. But the performance doesn’t correlate as well at higher levels, though, unaware of the effect of the nonlinearity, the psychologists will think it does. Performance=actual. In January 2019, Taleb got in a debate with crackpot Stefan Molyneux over Stefan's claims about group IQs. It is a false comparison to claim that IQ “measures the hardware” rather than the software. It can measure some arbitrarily selected mental abilities (in a testing environment) believed to be useful. This one of those videos that will definitely change your perspective on the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb divides the world and all that's in it (people, things, institutions, ways of life) into three categories: the fragile, the robust and the antifragile. See graph. Verified email at nyu.edu - Homepage. How to Price an Election: A Martingale Approach. So “vey low IQ” may provide information, while “very high IQ” may convey nothing better than random — it is not even a necessary condition.). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb.The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Escaping a … Metrification: If someone came up w/a numerical“Well Being Quotient” WBQ or “Sleep Quotient”, SQ, trying to mimic temperature or a physical quantity, you’d find it absurd. Save US$1.90. Seneca is the favored philosopher of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, our most important contemporary theorist of chance, luck, and the vagaries of life. These are lifeless bureaucrats who can muster sterile motivation. Additional Variance: Let us return to the point of the correlation test-retest. What these researchers don’t get is these contradictions come from the fact that. Nassim Nicholas Taleb Black Swan, Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile and Fooled By Randomness 4 Books Collection Set. In doing so, we also respond to the points raised by Ioannidis et al. The Facts are True, the News is Fake (Chapter from Skin in the Game) Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Perhaps we should not use the label Lebanese since Nassim Taleb writes in [4]:- It is remarkable how fast and how effectively … No. INCERTO. (Footnote: Herb’s Simon’s notion of scissors:one blade represents capabilities, the other bladethe situational context.) Taleb has made the art of bullshit detection a way of life, and he appreciates Seneca in particular because he found in Stoic teaching not consolation for misfortune so much as spiritual discipline for handling fantastic …
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